Compound Livelihood Shocks and Household Expenditure in Coastal South Sulawesi
Coastal households in South Sulawesi remain exposed to poverty as environmental stress, labor instability, and market uncertainty disrupt fisheries-based livelihoods. This study examines how compound livelihood shocks affect monthly per capita household expenditure and identifies household capacities that strengthen resilience among poor coastal communities. Six shocks are analyzed: job loss, wage reduction, work-related accident, death of a primary earner, marital disruption, and fish-catch or aquaculture loss. A cross-sectional explanatory survey was conducted with 275 poor coastal households selected through a three-stage stratified sampling strategy across island, rural mainland, and urban littoral settlements. The dependent variable was the natural logarithm of monthly per capita expenditure, and explanatory variables included shock indicators, household size, the household head's age and education, boat ownership, cooperative membership, savings account ownership, productive credit, and reliable fourth-generation mobile connectivity. Data were analyzed using hierarchical Ordinary Least Squares regression with heteroskedasticity-consistent robust standard errors and unconditional quantile regression based on the recentered influence function approach at Q25, Q50, and Q75. The OLS results show that all six shocks significantly reduce expenditure, with fish loss and death of a primary earner producing the largest negative associations. The full OLS model explains 87.4 percent of the variation in logged expenditure in the sample. The unconditional quantile regression results confirm that all six shocks remain negative and statistically significant across Q25, Q50, and Q75, indicating that livelihood shocks depress expenditure across different segments of poor coastal households. Education, savings, credit access, reliable mobile coverage, and boat ownership are positively associated with expenditure. The findings support an integrated coastal poverty policy that combines adaptive social protection, fisheries-risk mitigation, financial inclusion, digital infrastructure, and targeted productive asset support.
Keywords: coastal poverty, livelihood shocks, financial inclusion, household expenditure, resilience.
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